The numbers say the toy industry is having a strong year. Circana’s data shows 13% dollar growth in the US through April. Triple-digit growth in sensory toys. The kidult market expanding. All good.
I’ll be honest with you. I’m not feeling it on the ground.
Talking to fellow agents and distributors over the past few weeks, I’m not alone. Orders are slower than they should be. Conversations that should have converted haven’t. There’s a hesitation out there that the headline data doesn’t capture. Everyone is watching, waiting to see what the next disruption will be before they commit.
And there has been plenty of disruption to watch.
The Strait of Hormuz closure earlier this year hit shipping costs and confidence hard. When a waterway that carries a significant share of global trade gets shut down, it doesn’t just affect the energy market. It ripples through every supply chain, every freight quote, every buying decision. For those of us moving product between Asia and EMEA, it was felt directly.
The agreement signed at Versailles last week was supposed to close that chapter. Trump and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding on 17 June, the Strait reopened, and for a brief moment it looked like the industry might finally get some stability to plan around. Then on 20 June, Iran closed it again, citing Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The 60-day window for a final deal has barely started and it already looks fragile.
I realise that in this industry, and on this platform, the expectation is relentless positivity. The unwritten rule is that you project confidence, full stop. Doubt is kept private.
But occasionally a little honesty is useful. It helps you re-assess, recalibrate, and focus on what actually matters rather than pretending things are fine when they aren’t.
What I do feel, amid all of this, is that the people who hold the line with dignity matter. Giorgia Meloni this week called out a claim made about her at the G7 as completely fabricated, publicly and without hesitation. Trump had told Italian broadcaster La7 that she had “begged” him for a photo at the summit, adding he only agreed because he felt sorry for her. Meloni’s response was immediate and public: “Neither I, nor Italy, ever beg.” Her Foreign Minister cancelled his Washington trip in protest. In a week when very few people said anything worth remembering, that stood out. I’ve always had a soft spot for people who tell the truth plainly when it would be easier not to.
Right now, on the ground, it’s a grind. I suspect more of you feel that than are saying so.
